BAE delivers 1,000th THAAD seeker

BAE Systems recently delivered its 1,000th infrared seeker to Lockheed Martin for integration on the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor missile, achieving a major production milestone, the company announced on August 26.  

“At BAE Systems, we support our nation and its allies with the most advanced capabilities and technologies,” said Neeta Jayaraman, product line director for Precision Guidance and Sensing Solutions at BAE Systems. BAE Systems’ work on the THAAD seeker takes place at the company’s facilities in Nashua, New Hampshire, and Endicott, New York.

“The 1,000th THAAD seeker delivery reinforces our collaboration with Lockheed Martin and showcases our ability to deliver reliable next-generation targeting systems on time, enhancing precision-strike capabilities to counter emerging threats,” Jayaraman added.

THAAD is a highly effective defence system designed to intercept short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic missile threats. Its seeker uses innovative sensors to identify and lock onto targets and route interceptors to incoming targets.

“The strategic importance of the combat-proven THAAD Weapon System in defending our nation and its allies has never been more globally highlighted than in recent months,” said Dawn Golightly, Lockheed Martin’s vice president for Upper-Tier Integrated Air and Missile Defense. 

She is most likely referring to THAAD’s recent deployment in support of Israel, where it is understood to have fired more than 150 interceptors to help in the defence against Iran’s ballistic missile barrages. 

However, contributing to that defence consumed more than 25% of all THAAD interceptors that have ever been ordered, according to anonymous sources cited by the Wall Street Journal in July 2025. 

The budget request for 2026 notes that the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has received funding for 646 THAAD interceptors to date, and has not taken delivery of all of those missiles. This indicates that the Wall Street Journal’s reporting is likely accurate. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are also THAAD users, which may help to explain where some of the additional BAE seekers have gone to reach the figure of 1,000. 

Production for THAAD interceptors is believed to run at around 12 missiles per year, each costing $15.5 million. The MDA submitted a request to buy 25 additional missiles in the 2026 budget.

The economics of ballistic missile defence

There are multiple reports detailing the costs of ballistic missile defence. Overwhelmingly, they conclude that it is far cheaper to be the attacker. In a 2024 paper written by Igor Moric and Timor Kadyshev, they conclude that with an exceptionally high successful interception rate of 90%, as well as the ability to discern decoys from real missiles, the US would need to spend on average 8 times more than the simulated attacker, for a total cost between $60 billion and $500 billion. However, in what they describe as a more realistic scenario, where interceptors are only 50% effective (which may even be stretching the capabilities of the Ground Based Interceptor), the US would have to spend up to 70 times more than the attacker. This, they assess, would cost between $430 billion and $5.3 trillion to defend against an attack with 500 to 6,000 warheads as is assessed to be possible. 

This analysis is partially supported by real-world examples. Israel is estimated to have spent between $1 billion and $1.5 billion defending against Iranian ballistic missiles between October 2023 and June 2025. The US Navy claimed that its own efforts to support the defence of Israel and to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea cost an additional $1 billion, the service’s secretary, Carlos Del Toro told senators during a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing in 2024. Ukraine’s air defence costs are seldom reported on, but with Russia having launched tens of thousands of missiles and one-way attack drones, it is unlikely to be anything less than a few billion. 

Calibre comment

The costs of ballistic missile defence are often held up as a negative, but it is worth considering the damage that 300 Iranian missiles would have caused to Tel Aviv without shooting most of them down. Or, what would happen if the Houthis actually did sink a US aircraft carrier to gain some perspective. Air defence is expensive, and it is meant to preserve combat capability or infrastructure, the loss of which would put the country’s war effort and much more at risk. However, the cost reflects on a central issue of air defence, which is magazine depth. In all of the conflicts mentioned above, Israel, the Red Sea, Ukraine, magazine depth has become an issue after a protracted period of confrontation. It stands to reason that an adversary might learn from this, and simply focus on building enough interceptors to overcome those defences. 

This is at least part of the reason that Israel appears to be upgrading the David’s Sling air defence system, but should also be considered in Germany’s reported request to buy Arrow 4. There is little to no value in half-investing in ballistic missile defence, a state should ideally go all in and secure significant reserves of interceptors, or the investment could ultimately be wasted. In this context, while BAE’s milestone announcement is impressive, Iran alone is understood to have fired more than 300 ballistic missiles at Israel. Iran’s stocks and those of other countries within the “axis of chaos” (Iran, Russia, North Korea, China) indicate that much greater depth is required to defend against ballistic missiles, especially if more than one conflict is fought at a time.

By Sam Cranny-Evans, published on August 27, 2025. Credit for the lead image is BAE Systems.