Iran expert: “Successful popular uprising unlikely”

The US and Israel have been encouraging Iranians to carry out an uprising and overthrow the government. But the people of Iran lack many of the things necessary for success, an expert has said. It raises the question, what is the way out of this war for the US and Israel?

By Sam Cranny-Evans, editor of Calibre Defence, published on March 4, 2026. 

External military pressure is unlikely to translate into regime change in Iran, an expert on the region has said. Clionadh Raleigh, ACLED President & CEO, explained that “the public is unarmed, unorganised, and facing one of the most repressive and securitized states in the region.” Her comments came in the wake of US and Israeli calls “to throw off the shackles of the Islamic regime after 47 years.”

Despite sustained US-Israeli targeting of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij, and police infrastructure, Raleigh underscored that “even under sustained military pressure, the regime retains intelligence and internal security institutions designed to suppress dissent during moments of existential threat.”

In other words, Iran’s missiles and leadership might be facing extinction, but the organs of repression remain intact. It is those aspects of the state that prevent successful uprisings, not ballistic missiles. Raleigh adds that there would need to be defections within the country’s security apparatus for an uprising in Iran to have a chance of success.

She continued to add that there are three signs from the regime which show that the decision-making structures and organs of repression remain cohesive: 

1. The quick establishment of the leadership council
2. Coordinated public state messaging
3. And visible security deployments. 

Wrapping up, Raleigh cautioned that if the US and Israel do pursue full regime change in Iran, it will be a “significantly more destabilising process, with severe implications for Iran and the wider region.”

Calibre comment: How will the war in Iran end?

The war will likely end once the US and Israel feel confident they have significantly reduced Iran’s military capacity to pose a threat. This includes Israel and other countries in the region, as well as internationally. The calls to Iranian citizens are arguably tangential to the actual war aims of the US. The now aptly named Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, said the US aims to: 

“Destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure, and they will never have nuclear weapons.”

Good progress has already been made on the Iranian navy, according to Central Command, and the presence of Israeli aircraft flying over Tehran indicates that the air defence infrastructure has been degraded. The strike against Khamenei’s compound “further degrades the functional continuity of the regime’s command and control systems,” the IDF said. However, other sources have told news outlets that Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion is explicitly focused on regime change. 

The pattern of strikes in Iran is arguably similar to Israel’s operations against Hezbollah, Hamas, and even Syria. Israel has extensively targeted the leadership of the groups, even down to tactical commanders of battalions. It has also focused on removing those newly elected almost as soon as they come into a position. This has all happened alongside extensive targeting of the military infrastructure that supports the force in question. 

The net result is a prolonged weakening of the targeted group that grants Israel and the US some breathing space for a number of years. Destroying much of Iran’s missile infrastructure likely ensures that it will be unable to disrupt the Middle East in the same way for years to come. Regime change in Iran would be longer lasting, but it remains to be seen if there is any commitment to achieving it beyond airstrikes.

Further reading

If you’d like to read more on events in Iran, check out some of our articles below as well as the analysis from the ACLED team on the future of the Iranian regime: 

• Three observations from Iran’s drone strike on RAF Akrotiri – Calibre Defence 
• The Houthi Dilemma – will they join Iran’s conflict? – Calibre Defence 
• Defence in brief: CENTCOM repels Houthi attack 
• What will happen to the Iranian regime? | ACLED 

The lead image is an infographic from the Israeli MoD showing Khamenei’s compound as well as other buildings hit during the opening strike. Credit: IDF.