No shock exit: Making sense of US combat air power in Europe

Amidst changing and unpredictable rhetoric from the US regarding its approach and commitments to Europe, recent changes to the force posture of the US Air Force in the region should not be cause for concern, Luca Chadwick argues in this commentary.

Earlier this month, the United States Department of the Air Force released a congressional report outlining a 10-year plan for the procurement, sustainment, and force structure of its combat air capabilities. The document identifies a requirement for a total fleet of 1,558 combat-capable fighter aircraft within the next decade to ensure reliable force generation across all its required and potential missions. In this vein, the service set a goal of reaching 1,400 manned platforms in service by 2030.

The release of this report represents a critical stage in the Pentagon’s ongoing efforts to ensure its readiness to fight in a peer- and/or near-peer conflict. As such, it places heavy emphasis on modernisation and the targeted recapitalisation of viable fourth-generation platforms to sustain survivable combat mass during a period of major transition. 

In general, three central themes can be identified in the document. First, the retirement of legacy aircraft, which are increasingly expensive to maintain and face fragile supply chains. These include the A-10C Thunderbolt II, the F-15C Eagle, and early-production F-15E Strike Eagles, which will impose a temporary reduction in overall combat mass. 

Second is the consolidation and upgrade of the remaining fourth- and fifth-generation fleets. As part of this process, all front-line F-16 squadrons will eventually transition to upgraded Block 40 and Block 50 aircraft. Within the F-15E enterprise, ageing airframes will be retired, while the youngest aircraft will be retained and redistributed; all such changes will necessitate organisational adjustments. To enable this transition, the sole overseas-based F-15E units at RAF Lakenheath, United Kingdom, will return to the US to be absorbed by units there. 

Simultaneously, the service will continue integrating the F-35A Lightning II, implement upgrades to the F-22A Raptor fleet, and gradually introduce the F-15EX Eagle II. Collectively, these platforms will provide a critical bridge to next-generation systems, while continuing to shoulder much of the USAF’s deployed combat burden.

Finally, the roadmap emphasises future investment in survivability-centric, next-generation capabilities designed to operate within complex anti-access/area-denial environments. This includes plans to develop and field a Collaborative Combat Aircraft, the first of which flew in August 2025, as well as the USAF’s ‘Next Generation Air Dominance’ (NGAD) fighter, the F-47, which it hopes will fly in 2028. 

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Much of the public attention has focused on the report’s slower-than-expected projected growth for the F-35A fleet, as well as its lack of clarity about how the Air Force will achieve its goals. The key takeaway in the near term, though, is that existing Fourth- and Fifth-Generation platforms will continue to shoulder the burden of delivering US combat air power in theatre for the near future as the USAF seeks to achieve its ambitious goals. 

But what does the report mean for the US’s permanent air power for Europe, where Washington’s rhetoric has been increasingly uncertain? 

European Force Posture 

A key pillar of this plan is the recapitalisation of the USAF’s F-15E Strike Eagle enterprise, a change which has direct implications for the U.S. Air Forces in Europe (USAFE). This move, though it may appear to be a force reduction at first, still represents an overall enhancement for U.S. combat air power in Europe. 

Currently, the USAF’s 218-strong Strike Eagle fleet comprises two distinct iterations: approximately 119 early-production aircraft are powered by the Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-220 engine, and 99 later aircraft are equipped with the more powerful F100-PW-229. The USAF intends to retire its oldest Strike Eagles and consolidate the F100-PW-229-equipped aircraft at a specific location to streamline sustainment, simplify training, and enhance their long-term readiness. 

Currently, most of the PW-229-powered aircraft are assigned to the two F-15E squadrons under USAFE’s 48th Fighter Wing at RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom, which houses approximately 55 of these aircraft. Under the latest roadmap, both squadrons will return their aircraft to the United States between 2027 and 2029. One will then transition to the F-35A Lightning II from 2029, while the second will stand down without replacement. 

Elsewhere in Europe, USAFE’s force structure will remain stable, sustaining its three F-16C squadrons split between Germany and Italy. A typical USAF fighter squadron fields between 18 and 28 aircraft, meaning that even with the withdrawal of one Lakenheath squadron, Washington’s permanent combat air presence in Europe will remain between 150 and 170 aircraft. This is broadly consistent with the USAF’s footprint prior to the arrival of its first F-35s in 2021, which required activating the 495th FS to accommodate the new capability. 

Current USAFE Combat Air Order of Battle

• 510th FS, F-16C/D Block 40 Fighting Falcon, Aviano AB, Italy.
• 555th FS, F-16C/D Block 40 Fighting Falcon, Aviano AB, Italy. 
• 480th FS, F-16C/D Block 50 Fighting Falcon, Spangdahlem AB, Germany*.
• 492nd FS, F-15E Strike Eagle, RAF Lakenheath, United Kingdom**. 
• 493rd FS, F-35A Lightning II, RAF Lakenheath, United Kingdom.
• 494th FS, F-15E Strike Eagle, RAF Lakenheath, United Kingdom***. 
• 495th FS, F-35A Lightning II, RAF Lakenheath, United Kingdom.

FS = Fighter Squadron

*  = Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) specialised squadron. 

** = Begins return of aircraft to the US in 2027.

*** = Begins return of aircraft to the US in 2028; commences transition to F-35 in 2029. 

US F-35s in Europe 

The 48th FW’s transition to the F-35A represents a significant shift and advancement in its mission and capability. Prior to the introduction of the F-35, the Wing oversaw two multi-role F-15E squadrons and one air-defence/air-superiority-focused F-15C Eagle squadron. The transition to an all-F-35 force, therefore, transforms the wing into a fully swing-role configuration, capable of air-to-air combat, precision strike, interdiction, and tactical intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. 

Crucially, the F-35 adds substantial Suppression and Destruction of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD/DEAD) capacity to USAFE and European NATO. Owing to its AN/APG-81 AESA radar, the ASQ-239 electronic warfare suite, and its low-observable design, the F-35 is increasingly regarded as one of the most effective SEAD/DEAD platforms currently in service. 

Another way in which this is significant is that, to date, Lakenheath’s two F-35 squadrons have received non-TR-3 aircraft, as TR-3 aircraft were delivered to training units to preserve combat capability at front-line units, reflecting the TR-3 delays faced by the wider F-35 program. However, the expected delivery timeline to equip the 494th FS with F-35s from 2029 will give the capability time to mature, providing USAFE the opportunity to receive the most advanced aircraft directly as they become available. This is noteworthy because of the relative uncertainty about how the USAF will equip existing, fully equipped units with TR-3 aircraft. 

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Though not the full story, the expansion of  SEAD/DEAD capacity in Europe is strategically significant for NATO. NATO’s air forces only field a small number of dedicated SEAD platforms, leading to one of the Alliance’s most significant capability gaps. The addition of further US F-35s thus provides a valuable boost to NATO’s ability to meaningfully threaten adversary A2/AD capabilities on the continent. 

However, this additional capability should not be taken for granted by European states; rather, it should serve as a catalyst for further investment. The F-35 is most effective when employed as part of a networked force alongside other assets, including other F-35s, across the battlespace, and this is especially true of its ability to detect, fuse and share information for targeting, situational awareness and intelligence collection. 

The addition of further U.S. F-35s to Europe’s expanding F-35 user base, therefore, represents a significant force multiplier, with built-in interoperability, shared tactics, and common operating standards, facilitating a ‘plug-and-play’ approach to joint operations in Europe. This should hence prompt European air forces to look to the U.S.’ employment of the F-35 to expand their capabilities and optimise the aircraft’s utility. 

For instance, European operators could organically enhance NATO’s SEAD capabilities through systems such as MBDA’s SPEAR 3 standoff weapon for SEAD/DEAD. This would create a highly capable, integrated force that, rather than relying on the U.S.’s generous contributions, leverages them to maximise lethality. 

Meanwhile, the report outlines efforts to modernise and standardise the F-16 force. Block 40 and Block 50 F-16s will receive upgrades that will include an AESA radar, Multi-Functional Information Distribution System/Joint Tactical Radio System connectivity and improvements to the electronic warfare suite. This will ensure the F-16, including those assigned to Europe, will remain a relevant and plentiful capability, even as priorities elsewhere evolve. 

Sustaining the Strike Eagle

While the F-15E is set to depart Europe, the report emphasises its continued importance to the USAF. The type remains persistently deployed in the Middle East as an expeditionary capability, and has recently become a key element of US counter-UAS capabilities through the integration of the LAU-121A/A rocket pods and AGR-20 APWKS II laser-guided rockets. Furthermore, recent upgrades to the BAE Systems AN/ALQ-250 Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System (EPAWSS) electronic warfare suite continue to ensure the aircraft remains viable in high-threat environments. Critically, this capability is built on a modular, open architecture, which means it can readily receive consistent upgrades in the future. 

Consolidating the remaining fleet in the US will help preserve the platform’s readiness through localised maintenance and training. This will preserve the type’s ability to deploy readily to support growing demands across a myriad of overseas theatres, including the Indo-Pacific, which would be significantly more complex if aircraft remained split between the U.S. and Europe. 

The decision not to base the F-15EX Eagle II in Europe is also not particularly surprising. This simply reflects the USAF’s initial focus on employing the modernised Eagle variant as the replacement for the F-15C/D in the defensive/offensive counter-air roles. These aircraft have so far primarily been allocated to Air National Guard units to support domestic air defence requirements, as well as to two active-duty squadrons at Kadena Air Base, Japan, where their capabilities offer a range of options unique to the Indo-Pacific theatre. 

In a peer conflict, Europe’s relatively confined airspace would quickly become highly contested, making the F-35’s stealth and SEAD capabilities essential for striking well-defended targets both in the air and on the ground. These capabilities will also arrive in the Indo-Pacific as part of the USAF’s 10-year plan. However, the region’s vast distances place additional emphasis on greater operational range, weapons payload, and standoff engagement capabilities. 

These are areas in which the F-15EX excels, making it vital for achieving air superiority when opportunities to land and rearm are limited. The planned integration of Lockheed Martin’s AGM-158C-1 Long Range Anti-Ship Missile will further enhance its role in supporting U.S. efforts to deter and counter maritime threats in the region’s expansive maritime environment. 

Calibre comment: Rhetoric vs reality

While there have been no formal statements accompanying the proposed force-posture changes in Europe beyond what the document itself outlines, these developments should not be interpreted as a U.S. drawdown in Europe. Instead, they appear to reflect a deliberate effort to preserve combat mass and enhance combat air capabilities on the continent while modernising for a rapidly evolving, increasingly complex operational environment. 

Although one squadron at RAF Lakenheath will stand down, the overall number of permanent U.S. fighter squadrons in Europe will remain consistent with recent historic levels. Moreover, the remaining unit will be re-equipped with a suitable, far more capable, versatile, and survivable platform for the theatre. This represents a sustained U.S. commitment to European security, even as Washington’s global priorities continue to evolve, and recent political rhetoric has created uncertainty regarding America’s long-term commitment to Europe. 

By Luca Chadwick, published on November 20th, 2025. The lead image shows six F-15E Strike Eagles assigned to the 492nd and 494th Fighter Squadrons taxi to depart RAF Lakenheath in December 2020. Credit: Luca Chadwick

Author profile: Luca Chadwick is a new author to Calibre Defence and is also a new joiner to the world of defence journalism. He holds a BA in International Relations and an MA in Terrorism and Insurgency. He brings a focus on air power to our publication, which I am sure you will welcome. Thank you, Luca, for your contribution. You can connect with Luca on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/luca-c-31425a205/