Project NIGHTFALL: The UK’s search for tactical ballistic missiles

The British MoD is looking to procure a new tactical ballistic missile in what it is calling Project NIGHTFALL. An open early engagement released on GOV.UK, on August 27, sets out a series of requirements and is looking for industry feedback on the feasibility of the challenge by September 18. 

The announcement is surprising because the British Army had previously announced its intent to procure the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) that is being developed by Lockheed Martin for the US Army. An MoU between the US Army and British Army in 2022 set the ground-work for joint development and collaboration on indirect fires. And the UK’s modernisation of its M270 Multiple-Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) to the A2 standard is understood to include modifications allowing the PrSM to be fired. 

However, written evidence submitted to a Parliamentary committee by Lockheed Martin in January 2025 states the following: “The British Army should join the US and Australia in becoming a signatory to the PrSM MOU. PrSM would offer a significantly longer-range deep fires capability (over 499km), allowing it to outrange peer adversaries and break into A2/AD bubbles.” 

This indicates that as of January, the UK had not formalised its intent to procure PrSM, which has now led to Project NIGHTFALL. Some reports indicate that joining PrSM was too expensive for the expected returns, which may have been a contributing factor to the decision. And it is clear from the requirements in the NIGHTFALL announcement that cost is a consideration: “the target effector cost is £500,000 all-up per unit, excluding the warhead, launcher and any development costs.”

“Subject to potential future contract, manufacturing shall be scalable to meet operational requirements at a minimum of 10 units per month, with the ability to further increase,” the announcement adds, with additional statements clarifying that the solution should not include components that need foreign government approvals. This suggests a domestic solution with manufacturing to be carried out in the UK. If this is correct, then the UK MoD is choosing to move away from a relatively mature solution, which has completed soldier-led firings and engaged moving targets, for a potentially novel and unproven alternative. 

There will be an industry day for Project NIGHTFALL on September 24, and up to three vendors will be down-selected with contracts for the first phase expected in 2026. The MoD also states that Project NIGHTFALL is exempt from the Procurement Act 2023, a new law that governs how public bodies in the UK purchase goods and services. This likely refers to one of the exemptions in the act, which may allow for a direct award rather than a competitive tender process. This would enable the MoD to bypass the usual procurement procedures to deliver the capability at a faster pace, which the project documents

Project NIGHTFALL, scalable > exquisite

So, it certainly appears as though the UK’s entry into PrSM is far from certain and alternate options are being pursued, but what is the MoD looking for? 

The challenge statement outlines a ground vehicle able to carry at least two missiles that can both be fired within 15 minutes of the vehicle coming to a stop. The vehicle is then expected to leave the launch area within five minutes of firing. The missile itself is to have a range greater than 600 km with a 300 kg warhead with some ability to manoeuvre. 

In addition, NIGHTFALL is looking for a missile that can navigate in a GPS-denied environment and strike within five metres of a provided GPS coordinate 50% of the time. This is known as the circular error probable (CEP), a statistical measure of a weapon system’s accuracy. It’s the radius of a circle, centered on the aim point, within which there is a 50% probability that a round will land. This would make the NIGHTFALL missile very accurate, especially over the stated range of 600 km and in a GPS-denied environment. 

For reference, the M982 Excalibur guided artillery round is often cited as having a CEP between one and four metres, meaning that there is high confidence it will land within effective distance of its programmed coordinates. However, that is with GPS, which provides very precise course correction. Russian jamming in Ukraine is often reported to have rendered GPS-reliant weapons ineffective. This means that the solution for Project NIGHTFALL will have to employ inertial navigation, and possibly some form of terrain matching or similar to achieve the desired characteristics. 

This isn’t an impossible task: GPS jamming can work over a wide area, but there will be limits. This might mean that for the initial launch and first phase of the missile’s flight, it is unable to receive GPS signals, however, it might reacquire them in the mid-course portion of its flight. If jamming is also active at the target, then typically the missile would need to get within a given area and rely on some form of seeker for terminal guidance. We can see that this is entirely possible from Russia’s repeated use of Iskander ballistic missiles in Ukraine.

Connected to this, the announcement states that “It shall be: operable in harsh physical environments, day and night, of low multispectral signature, resilient in a complex Electromagnetic environment (EME), including within a GNSS denied & degraded environment, and resistant against targeted EW attack and spoofing.”

Some of the equipment could be government furnished, the NIGHTFALL announcement explains. This includes the warhead, fuzes, testing ranges, advice from the Defence Science and Technology Lab (DSTL), and with scaling production. 

However, the announcement is looking for industry feedback on the launch vehicles, rocket motors, the air frame, navigation, and the ability to scale. “The project will be prioritising scalability over exquisite solutions,” it adds. In terms of development timelines, the MoD is looking for solutions that can be packaged in 9 months, with five all-up rounds provided for trials at that stage. A contract is expected to be placed 3-6 months later for production of at least ten units per month. 

The full requirement explicitly prohibits drones and loitering munitions that do not fly on a ballistic trajectory from entering. This is likely a hint at the survivability requirements of the missile. A ballistic missile can be very hard to intercept, the Iskander for example, is thought to cruise at Mach 3 and reach Mach 5 in its terminal phase. It will also fly at altitudes up to 50 km, higher than most air defence systems can reach.  

Altogether the challenge statement seems quite reasonable. Prioritising the exquisite before scalability is a criticism that has often been levelled at the MoD by some who see the need for a complete exquisite solution as the reason for so many UK programmes struggling. So, focusing on delivering a solution at scale suggests a different approach for this procurement. 

Calibre comment

The UK MoD should be able to find a range of suitors for NIGHTFALL. Its domestic missile manufacturer MBDA could likely address many of the requirements with existing technology. But there are others like Flarebright, which has developed a “GPS-free, strike grade navigation system,” and Supacat, which produced the vehicles used in Ukraine’s Gravehawk air defence system. 

The procurement is also rather critical to the UK’s concept of operations, which envisages deep strikes being used to disrupt and dislocate an adversary, destroying equipment and command nodes to set the conditions for an “unfair fight.” This connects with other work like Project ASGARD and the concept of the digital targeting web, which aims to connect any British sensor with any shooter so that more targets can be engaged, or better command decisions made. The British Army is rather limited in its ability to contribute to that concept by the range of its systems. It is expected to acquire the extended range GMLRS missile for its M270s, which has a range of 150 km. But clearly the MoD sees a need for the ability to strike much further into enemy-held territory. PrSM was expected to fulfill this role, but it now appears as if that is off the table. So, we shall watch Project NIGHTFALL with interest, it could be a valuable new development for the British armed forces. 

By Sam Cranny-Evans, published on August 29, 2025. Credit for the lead image is PO Rouse/UK MOD © Crown copyright 2024. It shows an M270B1 during a live fire exercise in Estonia in 2022.