Turkey buys Typhoon, so defence is a driver of economic growth?

In another boost for the UK’s defence exports, Turkey has opted to buy 20 UK Typhoon fighter jets in an £8 billion deal described as the “biggest fighter jet exports deal in a generation,” by the country’s MoD in an October 27 statement. As usual, the statement focuses on the value this deal brings to the UK economy, the 20,000 jobs it will reportedly support, and underlines “the government’s work to make defence an engine for growth.” 

The first deliveries are expected in 2030, with around 37% of each aircraft to be manufactured in the UK, the remainder will be produced by the Eurofighter partner nations – Germany, Spain, and Italy. All three of those nations have also placed recent orders for Eurofighters, totalling an additional 69 jets to be added to the production line. 

The BAE Systems press release, issued the same day, adds more colour to the story. The company values the deal at circa £5.4 billion, and adds that it will include a weapons package from MBDA. That package will include the Meteor air-to-air missile, and BAE expects to “recognise c.£4.6 billion [from the deal] including through its shareholding in MBDA.”

Typhoon is something of a favourite for the UK Treasury; it is often said that the initial £12 billion investment has returned close to £30 billion in export revenue. According to BAE, every £1 spent by the UK on Typhoons, returned £1.9 to the country’s GDP. As always, there is an element of “who paid the piper” to these figures. The UK government has reduced its fleet of Typhoons, retiring 49 Tranche 1 aircraft in March/April this year and keeping the modernisation of the remainder to a modest quantity, means that the UK’s companies are reliant upon exports, rather than domestic procurement. 

The other partners, however, have all recently received new domestic orders, which will serve to keep their production lines going, without reliance upon exports. 

Typhoon production

Each of the four partner nations is responsible for different elements of production, which are outlined below: 

Nation	Lead Company	Role and Key Contributions	Workshare
United Kingdom	BAE Systems	Manufactures the Front Fuselage (including cockpit and canard foreplanes), the Fin/Tail, and various internal systems. It is the lead for the UK’s aircraft and certain export orders (e.g., Turkey and Saudi Arabia). Also leads development for systems like the new ECRS Mk 2 radar (with Leonardo).	37%
Germany	Airbus Defence & Space (formerly DASA)	Manufactures the Centre Fuselage (the primary structural element), including air intakes. It oversees final assembly for German aircraft and has been heavily involved in recent new orders (e.g., the Quadriga contract).	30%
Italy	Leonardo	Produces the Wing Assembly and various high-value electronics, including a significant role in the avionics and the Defensive Aids Sub-System (DASS) known as Praetorian, and the PIRATE Infrared Search and Track (IRST) system.	19.50%
Spain	Airbus Defence & Space (formerly CASA)	Manufactures the Right Wing (and other wing parts) and the Rear Fuselage (where the engines are mounted). Responsible for final assembly of Spanish-ordered aircraft.	13%

So, the order for Turkey will benefit the Eurofighter partners, and MBDA, as well as the UK economy. But, transparently, the order will not contribute £8 billion to the UK’s economy. Using the workshare agreement above – which is almost certainly not how the contract amounts are divided – but nonetheless provides something of a benchmark: The UK would receive £3 billion from the deal, Germany £2.4 billion, Italy £1.56 billion, and Spain £1.04 billion. As noted above, BAE expects to realise c.£4.6 billion, which may suggest that a significant portion of the value given by the UK government is related to the weapons package. As BAE Systems holds 37.5% of MBDA, this high ownership stake helps explain the company’s expectation to realise c.£4.6 billion from the overall contract. This is further supported by Germany’s last order for 20 Tranche 5 Eurofighters in early October, which was valued at £3.31 billion. 

Still a good thing for the UK, and showing how defence does contribute to a country’s economy, albeit the numbers are somewhat opaque. Moreover, the support for the production line will mean that should the UK decide to buy more Typhoons in the future, it will be able to. 

Defence as a driver of growth: Type 26, Lockheed, and Boxer

The Typhoon announcement comes hot on the heels of Norway’s selection of the Type 26 ASW frigate. That deal, valued at £10 billion, will add five ships to BAE’s production schedule, and reportedly will require the Royal Navy to delay receipt of some of its own vessels in order to meet Norway’s delivery requirements. The Type 26 was the first major export deal announced after the Labour Government released its Defence Investment Strategy back in September, and others are on the horizon. 

As reported first by Calibre Defence during DSEI, Lockheed Martin UK is lining up a major export opportunity for its new unmanned turret to Saudi Arabia. That effort has been supported by the UK’s  Defence & Security Exports (UKDSE), a part of the UK’s Department for Business and Trade (DBT) responsible for promoting and facilitating the export of British defence and security products and services.

Also in the Middle East, there is the question of Qatar. Qatar signed a letter of intent for 490 VBCIs from France in 2017. Negotiations reportedly concluded in 2019 and there were rumours that the deal had been cancelled. Separately, the UK’s domestic production of the Boxer armoured fighting vehicle is thought to be well-positioned to meet the country’s needs. Both vehicles were displayed at the DIMDEX 2024 exhibition in Qatar, the Boxer was painted with both the British and Qatari flags. A UK MoD representative added that the package included a partnership for training, doctrine development, and “other aspects,” in an interview with Breaking Defense. 

Calibre comment: Is defence driving economic growth? 

The UK’s defence exports have grown by 52% over the past decade, reaching £13.7 billion in value in 2024, according to a report released by the ADS Group. “52% growth in ten years does sound impressive, but the majority of this growth has actually been in the past three years,” Aimie Stone, Chief Economist at ADS, explained to Calibre Defence. This 10-year timeframe is significant, as UK defence spending began decreasing from 2010 due to successive governments grappling with the 2008 financial crash’s aftermath. Exports are only part of the story, the UK’s defence industry as a whole turned over £36.4 billion in 2024 – 1.28% of the UK’s GDP. It is reasonable to conclude that defence is a driver for economic growth, both in terms of domestic procurement and exports. It certainly generates revenue, which leads to tax returns, and an increase in GDP. 

However, it is worth noting that Turkey first showed an interest in the Typhoon in 2022, Norway announced its ASW procurement in 2024, and Qatar its 8×8 procurement in 2017. All of these requirements pre-date the Strategic Defence Review’s recommendation that “Defence should more purposefully use its market power to create economic growth.” All three of these programmes actually pre-date the current government, which suggests that the UK may have a more enduring export appeal. Moreover, the new government has announced very few new procurements and programmes, largely continuing previous policies and programmes. There is, according to some, a much stronger drive to “buy British,” although the one firm decision – buying F-35As – is notably not British. So, in the best case scenario, we can say that the UK’s defence industry is a driver for economic growth, but it is not yet clear whether this government has helped that to happen. If the promised increase in defence spending does materialise, then it is reasonably likely that these figures will improve, hopefully building a lasting legacy of industrial strength in the UK. 

By Sam Cranny-Evans, published on October 30, 2025. The lead image shows Eurofighter Typhoons from a variety of user nations. Credit: BAE Systems.